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London real estate most overpriced property globally, warns UBS

The London housing market has formed the world's biggest house price bubble, according to the Swiss bank, UBS.

It said the ratios of property prices to incomes, and property prices to rents, have reached all-time highs.

And it warned that London house prices have become more "decoupled" from household earnings than anywhere else in the world.

More than any other big city in the world, the capital now faces the risk of a "substantial" price correction.

In its Global Real Estate Bubble Index, UBS says any city scoring more than 1.5 is at risk of a bubble.

London had the highest score, at 1.88.
Hong Kong came second, with a score of 1.67.


download > pdf report


Real house prices, after adjusting for inflation, have soared by almost 40% in London since the beginning of 2013, said UBS.

That makes London one of the most expensive cities in the world.

Amongst other findings in the report:

  • London house prices are, in real terms, 6% above their 2007 peak. This compares with a national drop in house prices of 18% 

London house prices have also surged 40 per cent, since the beginning of 2013 because of demand from overseas buyers, attractive rental yields and population growth, said UBS.

The decoupling of the London market is "even more drastic" considering that real average earnings have fallen by 7% since 2007.

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