Estate agents are braced for a slump in demand and cooling prices for houses and flats as a new stamp duty tax on investment properties and second homes knocks the wind out of Britain's buy-to-let boom.
Buyers raced to complete deals ahead of Friday's introduction of a 3 per cent surcharge on Stamp Duty ,this resulted in a 71 per cent surge in home sales by value to £17bn in the two weeks.
The stamp-duty stampede to buy second homes led to £17 billion of house sales across the UK over the last two weeks - £5.4 billion of which were in London.
Around £3.4 billion of properties were exchanged yesterday alone, a 141 per cent increase on the same day last year, as solicitors cancelled holidays and worked until midnight to rush through completions before the April 1 deadline.
Estate agents, sellers and buyers delivered documents by hand across London to avoid postal delays.
"In one case, we even rushed down to the Eurostar departure lounge to catch a vendor who had moved out of his property and still not signed his completion statement. Luckily, we caught him 10 minutes before the train departed for Paris," says Jonathan Hudson, London executive of the National Association of Estate Agents.
Countrywide estimates that second home and buy-to-let purchasers saved £275 million on stamp duty by exchanging before the changes come into effect.
"Second home buyers of all types, particularly investors, developers and holiday home buyers rushed to beat the additional three per cent stamp duty levy, meaning second home buyers made up over half of the market (55 per cent) in March, compared to 20 per cent the same time last year," said a research spokesman at CW PLC.
The most dramatic increase in transactions took place in traditional London buy-to-let markets such as the City, Fulham, Clapham and Islington, according to Marc Goldberg, head of sales at Hamptons International. While commuter-belt areas such as Caterham, Harpenden and Windsor were "alive" with extra activity, second-home markets, such as Bath and Cheltenham, also had big rises in sales.
Landlords, estate agents and solicitors were in a last-minute rush to complete property deals ahead of a stamp duty rise that took effect today.
Anyone buying a home that is not their main residence now faces the 3% Stamp Duty surcharge.
In Scotland, the equivalent tax - the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) - is also being up-rated.
From midnight on Thursday the duty on a property sold for £200,000 will rise from £1,500 to £7,500.
Buy To Let Price Bands
"It's been very chaotic. But the real problems will be today," said Rob Hailstone, of the Bold Legal Group.
The problems have been compounded by the fact that some of the fine detail was only announced in the Budget just over two weeks ago.
"It's been ridiculously busy. Buyers have been saying they want to rush it through, because they don't want to pay the surcharge," said Mr Hailstone.
'Bottleneck'
While the theoretical deadline is midnight, the practical deadline is late on Thursday afternoon, when the banks close.
Sales can only be completed when the money comes though from the lender.
"It's was a busy crazy day," said Martyn Baum, the President of the National Association of Estate Agents.
"We've all got a bottleneck, and a huge amount of deals before the deadline. I've heard of estate agents and conveyancers staying open till 10pm, and then opening again at 5am this week."
The stamp duty surcharge will affect landlords purchasing buy-to-let property, or anyone who is buying a second home.
But many ordinary buyers are involved in chains which involve an investor somewhere along the line - so they too have been caught in the chaos.
Earlier this week, the Bank of England announced plans to subject landlords to a series of new affordability tests,the Bank of England has proposed.
It suggested that lenders should be much stricter when deciding whether or not to grant landlords a mortgage.
Instead of just taking their rental income into account, the Bank wants lenders to look at their wider financial situation as well.
If adopted, the new rules could reduce lending to landlords by up to 20% over the next three years.
The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) - an arm of the Bank - has recommended that banks and building societies take account of:
However, Grainger [LON:GRI], Britain’s biggest listed residential landlord, is nevertheless well positioned to exploit the private rented sector despite the tax changes.
The Newcastle-based owner of £2.8bn worth of UK property is investing heavily in its home market, amid predictions that private renters will outnumber homeowners within a decade.
Grainger, which last year posted revenues of £244m and pre-tax profits of £50m, is seeking to capitalise on the rapid growth of “generation rent” as lending has become stricter amid a shortage of affordable housing. For many younger people, renting is expected to become the norm well into adulthood.
The FTSE 250-listed company recently unveiled plans to spend £850m building and buying UK rental properties over four years.
The strategy to simplify Grainger’s business is spearheaded by new chief executive Helen Gordon, who previously led moves by RBS to deleverage its distressed property book.
Grainger has begun by selling off assets to fund new-build rental homes. It sold its British equity release arm to private equity for £325m in January, followed by the sale of a £94m loss-making German property portfolio Heitman JV .
It means that despite an expected plunge in revenues next year, as its business shrinks, pre-tax profits are expected to increase by 8pc to £54m in the 12 months to October 2016.
Following recent falls in Grainger’s share price, the company is trading at a 22pc discount to its net asset value, suggesting that current prices have yet to reflect its promising new strategy.
The plans were set in motion last month with the acquisition of a £99m, 614-home development in Salford, Clippers Quay, which will be completed this year. The company has also submitted plans for a 232-home development in west Berkshire.
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If adopted, the new rules could reduce lending to landlords by up to 20% over the next three years.
The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) - an arm of the Bank - has recommended that banks and building societies take account of:
- all the costs a landlord might have to pay when renting out a property
- any tax liability associated with the property
- a landlord's personal tax liabilities, "essential expenditure" and living costs.
- a landlord's additional income - where this is being used to support the borrowing. This income should be "verified".
- Their personal income and expenditure could be scrutinised by lenders before they decide to give them a mortgage.
- Landlords may also have to prove that they could afford a rise in borrowing costs.
"The changes the Chancellor has made to mortgage interest tax relief and higher stamp duty for landlords will have enough of an impact on buy-to-let without the need for further interference from the Bank of England."
Before the PRA announcement lenders had expected the buy-to-let market to expand by 20% a year over the next few years, in spite of the tax changes.
If the measures are adopted, the PRA believes such growth will slow to 17% a year.
The PRA consultation will last until 29 June 2016.
Bucking the Trend
However, Grainger [LON:GRI], Britain’s biggest listed residential landlord, is nevertheless well positioned to exploit the private rented sector despite the tax changes.
The Newcastle-based owner of £2.8bn worth of UK property is investing heavily in its home market, amid predictions that private renters will outnumber homeowners within a decade.
Grainger, which last year posted revenues of £244m and pre-tax profits of £50m, is seeking to capitalise on the rapid growth of “generation rent” as lending has become stricter amid a shortage of affordable housing. For many younger people, renting is expected to become the norm well into adulthood.
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