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Toasted and posted Brexit , Housing Market and interest Rates a heads up !



Despite today's distractions over in Islington , when three employees from foxton's high street estate agent became tangled up in activists protests, outside Boris Johnson Home. After closing they headed off to the local watering hole , on departure they began to brawl on the streets and where duly sacked.


 Lets face it BREXIT is well and truly " Posted " toasted whatever you want to think of it ,  despite recent data from some property portals trying to reflect a  "balanced state of affairs " .What was inevitable, has come
 pre and and now post brexit from the bank of England via Carney's team during his latest inflation report update .




Interest rates 

Ahead of the June 23 Brexit vote, economists had predicted growth would continue close to the 0.6 percent achieved in the second quarter, but median forecasts in the latest Reuters poll showed the economy would contract 0.1 percent this quarter and next.




If correct, that would meet the technical definition of recession. Britain's economy would then return to only modest growth next year, the poll of nearly 60 economists taken this week found.

"The recession will largely be driven by sharp falls in business investment over the coming quarters," said Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.


"Most firms will hold off investment until there is a bit more clarity over whether we are likely to remain in the single market ... and to see how much other firms are impacted by Brexit."


With our forecast looking for an even weaker outturn than the BoE in H2, I suspect a rate cut is highly likely and I suspect that the effective lower bound is around 0.1 percent," said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.

BoE Governor Mark Carney has dismissed negative interest rates, used by other central banks, as a policy option and 19 of 23 economists who answered an extra question said he was right to do so.

"You might argue that ruling out any policy option is unwise, and under normal circumstances it is, but my interpretation of Carney's message is that there are limits to what monetary policy can achieve and that the ball is in the government's court to take appropriate measures," Dixon said.

Finance minister Philip Hammond has said he will review government tax and spending policy in a budget update later this year. Some economists have urged him to launch a program of debt-finance investment projects to support the economy.

Over two-thirds of the economists who answered an extra question said they expect significant fiscal stimulus from the government when it presents its Autumn Statement.

"Despite the fanfare, a 25 basis point rate cut and more QE can't be expected to have a huge macroeconomic impact," said Simon Wells at HSBC. "If the economy deteriorates further, fiscal policy may be a more effective quick fix."


Housing Market 


- British housing market activity ebbed the month following the vote to leave the European Union, with gauges of house price growth and transactions falling to the lowest level in years, a survey showed on Thursday.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said its members cited uncertainty following the June 23 referendum and tax changes as the main reasons for the slowdown - but some said activity had started to improve after an initial wobble.

Its headline price balance - a leading indicator of other house price indexes - fell to +5 in July from +15 in June, its lowest level since April 2013. House price declines were most acute in London, although the pace eased a little from June.

Overall property transactions declined at the same pace as in June, marking the weakest two months since mid-2008. RICS said a severe shortage of property coming to the market could yet weigh further on the market.

Last week Bank of England Governor Mark Carney highlighted signs that the housing market was weakening after the central bank cut interest rates to a new record low and launched a stimulus package that could add up to 170 billion pounds ($222 billion) to the financial system.

"The housing market is currently balancing a raft of somewhat mixed economic news alongside the latest policy measures announced by the Bank of England, which have already begun to lower cost of mortgage finance," said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS' chief economist.

"Against this backdrop, it is not altogether surprising that near term activity measures remain relatively flat.

A rebound in July price expectations for the year ahead could signal that confidence is more robust than suggested in the previous month's survey, Rubinsohn added.

RICS' balance of expected sales in the next three months recovered to -2 from a record low of -26 in the previous month's survey.